Abstract
Indonesia is the fourth longest coastal country in the world, so it has the potential to become a salt exporting country. But appareantly, Indonesia has very high salt imports. This paper seeks to raise the irony bya modeling Indonesian salt imports. Based on various theories and result of previous studies, this paper proposes the price of imported salt, the real exchange rate, the need for salt, and domestic production as an independent variable. The sample used stretches from 2001 to 2018. This paper uses a time series model to analyze data. With the conditional ECM (error correction model), this paper finds that in the short or long term, all selected independent variables have a significant effect on the volume of salt imports, although the exchange rate requires lag to influence the import. This paper suggests increasing the education of salt farmers related to the salt content desired by industry.
Highlights
Indonesia adalah negara dengan pantai terpanjang nomor empat di dunia sehingga berpotensi menjadi negara pengekspor garam
Based on various theories and result of previous studies, this paper proposes the price of imported salt, the real exchange rate, the need for salt, and domestic production as an independent variable
With the conditional ECM (error correction model), this paper finds that in the short or long term, all selected independent variables have a significant effect on the volume of salt imports, although the exchange rate requires lag to influence the import
Summary
Keberlangsungan impor garam di Indonesia sudah dimulai sejak tahun 1990 dengan volume awal sebesar 349.042 ton. Tetapi semakin tahun volume impor garam di Indonesia terus meningkat sehingga tidak sesuai dengan kebutuhan yang seharusnya. Seperti di tahun 2014 kebutuhan akan garam sebesar 3.661.990 ton dan produksi garam lokal pun mencapai. Ketidakberdayaan pemerintah dalam mengatur kegiatan impor ini akan membuat semakin tidak terkendalinya kegiatan impor garam di Indonesia. Para petani pun terkadang lebih memilih untuk menjualkan garam mereka di bawah harga yang sudah ditentukan oleh pemerintah daripada mereka harus melihat hasil produksinya tidak terjual sama sekali. Variabel dependen adalah volume impor garam, dan volume produksi, GDP Indonesia, GDP negara pengimpor, harga impor, nilai tukar sebagai variabel independen. Di Indonesia, peraturan pemerintah di lapangan terkadang tidak bisa melindungi kepentingan industri garam lokal, seperti yang ditemukan oleh Astuti et al (2018) bahwa perutaran pemerintah No 9 tahun 2018 menyebabkan harga garam rakyat jatuh dan tidak terserap secara maksimal. Untuk melihat lebih dalam tentang tata niaga garam rakyat, silahkan lihat Rochwulaningsih (2013)
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