Abstract
<p style="text-align: justify;">Phenological models have been made mainly for winegrape cultivars, despite the economic importance of table grapes. The aim of this work was to develop and validate models for predicting phenological scales of table grapes (cvs. Thompson, Crimson and Superior Seedless and Red Globe) grown under semi-arid conditions. Measurements of phenology were carried out weekly from budburst to harvest during four growing seasons (2009-2013). Phenology models were developed using the Mitscherlich monomolecular equation where the dependent and independent variables were the Eichhorn and Lorenz phenological (ELP) scale modified by Coombe and the growing degree days (GDD), respectively. Results indicated that there were strong non-linear correlations between the ELP scale and GDD for the four cultivars with coefficient of determinations (R<sup>2</sup>) ranging between 0.97-0.99. Also, validation indicated that the models were able to predict ELP scale with a root mean square (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) ranging between 2.1-2.4 and 1.35-1.69, respectively. The prediction variability (expressed in days) was between 4.4-19.4 days, obtaining the best results for the flowering period. This study suggested that the phenological models based on GDD could be useful planning tools for farming, especially from budburst to veraison of table grape cultivars.</p>
Highlights
Phenology, which studies the succession of plant growth stages, is important at different spatial scales
The daily mean temperatures were above 10°C, which is considered the threshold temperature of Vitis vinifera as indicated by several authors (Mullins et al, 1992; Ortega-Farías et al, 2002; Valdés-Gómez et al, 2009)
The average air temperature during the growing seasons ranged between 16.4-17.5°C, with maximum values observed in the 2010-2011 growing season
Summary
Phenology, which studies the succession of plant growth stages, is important at different spatial scales For Vitis vinifera, several authors have generated predictive models for phenology, either as management tools (Williams et al, 1985a and b; Ortega-Farías et al, 2002; ValdésGómez et al, 2009; Mariani et al, 2013; Cola et al, 2014; Molitor et al, 2014b; Santibáñez et al, 2014) or to assess the potential impact of climate change effects in different grape productive areas of the world (Webb et al, 2007; Caffarra and Eccel, 2010; Jorquera-Fontena and Orrego-Verdugo, 2010; Marta et al, 2010; Moriondo et al, 2011; Fila et al, 2012). Of the researchers mentioned above only Williams et al (1985a and b) and Santibáñez et al (2014) worked with table grape cultivars, located in USA and Chile, respectively
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