Model Comparison and Uncertainty Quantification for Geologic Carbon Storage: The Sim-SEQ Initiative

Abstract

Sim-SEQ is a model comparison initiative for geologic carbon storage (GCS). Within this initiative, 15 different modeling teams are developing conceptual models for flow and transport of an injected CO2 plume at the Sim-SEQ study site (the S-3 site) located near Cranfield, Mississippi. The objective of the project is to understand the sources of model uncertainty in GCS, and if possible, to quantify these uncertainties through comparison of the different conceptual models and also through comparison with observed data from the S-3 site. In this paper, we compare six different conceptual models of the S-3 site, and present a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these six models using a generalized linear model approach. We show that differences in model conceptualization and interpretation of site characterization data cause a significant range in predictions.