Model-based simulation of glycaemic effect and body weight loss when switching from semaglutide or dulaglutide to once weekly tirzepatide

Abstract

Objective To evaluate the efficacy endpoints of HbA1c and body weight loss after switching from the GLP-1 receptor agonists, semaglutide or dulaglutide, to treatment with the GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist (RA) tirzepatide. Methods Models were developed and validated to describe the HbA1c and weight loss time course for semaglutide (SUSTAIN 1-10), dulaglutide (AWARD-11) and tirzepatide (SURPASS 1-5, phase 3 global T2D program). The impact of switching from once weekly GLP-1 RAs to tirzepatide was described by simulating the efficacy time course. Semaglutide and dulaglutide doses were escalated in accordance with their respective labels. Results Model-predicted mean decreases from baseline in HbA1c and body weight for semaglutide 0.5 mg, 1 mg, and 2 mg were 1.22 to 1.79% and 3.62 to 6.87 kg respectively, at Week 26. Model-predicted mean decreases from baseline in HbA1c and body weight for dulaglutide 1.5 mg, 3 mg and 4.5 mg were 1.53 to 1.84% and 2.55 to 3.71 kg respectively, at Week 26. After switching to tirzepatide 5, 10 and 15 mg HbA1c reductions were predicted to range between 1.95 to 2.46% and body weight reductions between 6.50 to 12.1 kg by Week 66. Conclusion In this model-based simulation, switching from approved maintenance doses of semaglutide or dulaglutide to tirzepatide, even at the lowest approved maintenance dose of 5 mg, showed the potential to further improve HbA1c and body weight reductions.