Model-based estimation of small area food insecurity measures in Ethiopia using the Fay-Herriot EBLUP estimator

Abstract

In many countries, including Ethiopia, sample surveys are designed to produce estimates of variables of interest at the national and regional levels due to cost and operational considerations. For example, household food insecurity estimates are needed down at least at the zone level in Ethiopia to offer targeted solutions. However, the sample sizes of sample surveys are often not large enough to produce reliable estimates at the small area (zone) level. This paper remedies some of these shortcomings by estimating household food insecurity in each zone of Ethiopia by linking data from the 2015/16 welfare and monitoring survey and the 2007 population census using a small area estimation (SAE) approach. The results show the zonal level household food insecurity estimates generated by SAE were more efficient and precise compared to the survey-based estimates. Besides, accurate and cost-effective food insecurity statistics at the zonal level were produced without more resources through combining the available data sources. Finally, zonal level household food insecurity estimates could be the recommended tools for monitoring the progress of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in Ethiopia. Because, in the final 2030 Agenda, SDG 2 concentrates entirely on food security, recognizing much of its complex and multi-faceted nature.