MODEL-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS IMPACT ON POPULATION HEALTH

Abstract

Based on the statistical data of the sanitation and hygiene monitoring for the period from 1992 to 2014, an information and analytical system is being developed as a means of model-based decision support at the level of regional services' monitoring of population health and the environment. The system consists of several interacting subsystems and exchange data. The first subsystem is a database for collection, storage and organization of end-user access on the Internet. The second subsystem processes statistical data, ensures visualization of current statistical parameters of data sets and, on their basis, constructs statistical forecasting models of behavior of individual factors of the region's social and economic system, including the environment. The third forecasting subsystem based on fuzzy logic is necessary to construct models in situations of incomplete or distorted information about the status of various parameters of the region's dynamics. These three subsystems will be part of a unified service system for collection and management of data via the Internet. The developed framework of the information and analytical system will ensure a more effective assessment of interactions of environmental and population health factors in order to manage this system of relationships.