Abstract
Isaac River catchment, which is located within Fitzroy basin in Central Queensland, Australia is mostly a semi-arid region, sparsely populated, but rife with economic activities such as mining, grazing, cropping and production forestry. Hydro-meteorological data over the past several decades reveal that the catchment is experiencing increasing variability in precipitation and streamflow contributing to more severe droughts and floods supposedly due to climate change. The exposure of the economic activities in the catchment to the vagaries of nature and the possible impacts of climate change on the stream flow regime are to be analyzed. For the purpose, SWAT model was adopted to capture the dynamics of the catchment. During calibration of the model 12 parameters were found to be significant which yielded a R2 value of 0.73 for calibration and 0.66 for validation. In the next stage, six GCMs from CMIP3 namely, CGCM3.1/T47, CNRM-CM3, GFDL-CM2.1, IPSLCM4, MIROC3.2 (medres) and MRI CGCM2.3.2 were selected for climate change projections in the Fitzroy basin under a very high emissions scenario (A2), a medium emissions scenario (A1B) and a low emissions scenario (B1) for two future periods (2046-2064) and (2080-2100). All GCMs showed consistent increases in temperature, and as expected, highest rate for A2 and lowest rate for B1. Precipitation predictions were mixed-reductions in A2 and increases in A1B and B1, and more variations in distant future compared to near future. When the projected temperatures and precipitation were inputted into the SWAT model, and the model outputs were compared with the baseline period (1980-2010), the picture that emerged depicted worsening water resources variability.
Highlights
Australia is known as the driest continent of the world, and with its stressed water resources, there is veritable evidence that climate change would stress it even further [1]
Evidence is growing that climate change would enhance extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and bushfires which would impact on water resources of a region [2]
This study aims to fill that gap by investigating the impact on water resources of the Isaac River catchment using the mathematical tool Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which has been already applied elsewhere in the world with satisfactory results
Summary
Australia is known as the driest continent of the world, and with its stressed water resources, there is veritable evidence that climate change would stress it even further [1]. Evidence is growing that climate change would enhance extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and bushfires which would impact on water resources of a region [2]. The ex-Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd, once called climate change “the greatest moral, economic and social challenge of our time”. His words reflect the vulnerability of Australia to climate change. It can adversely affect water resources with flow on effect on the environment and economy. Decision makers are seeking answers as to how they should plan for the future to counter the adverse effects of climate change
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