Model analyses for sustainable energy supply taking resource and environmental constraints into consideration

Abstract

This paper aims at clarifying key points for realizing sustainable energy supply under restrictions on resource and environment. For this purpose, we first developed a database to estimate life cycle efficiencies and greenhouse gas emissions for various energy systems. Then on the basis of this life cycle assessment, we quantitatively define the concept of ‘Sustainability Limitations’ on resource depletion and environmental emissions. From this concept, present world is judged to be unsustainable both from resource and environmental viewpoints. At the same time, we clarify how far present world is from Sustainability Limitations. Then we describe our mathematical model simulating global energy supply and demand in ultra-long term. In this model, the concept of Sustainability Limitations is utilized so as to impose economic incentives to make energy system shift to a sustainable one in long term. Sustainability limitations of resource depletion and CO2 emissions are taken into consideration. As energy resources, this model includes coal, oil, natural gas, other unconventional fossil fuels, uranium and renewable resources. As energy technologies, it includes major technologies of mining, transport, conversion and final utilization. Computed results have shown that present energy system, which is judged to be unsustainable, shifts to a sustainable system in the ultra-long term with appropriate incentives.