Modal shift in Eastern Germany

Abstract

The economic and political reunification of Germany in 1990 unleashed a transportation revolution in Eastern Germany. After forty years of public transport dominance under socialism, auto ownership and use skyrocketed with the transition to capitalism. In only three years, ridership on public transport fell by almost 50%, and auto registrations per 1,000 population rose by almost 60%. The main reason for the sudden shift in modal split is the large increase in real per-capita incomes of Eastern Germans. Their purchasing power rose dramatically thanks to massive financial aid from Western Germany and access to hard currency for the first time. In addition, the relative cost of auto use has fallen sharply since reunification because public transport fares rose ten-fold, while gasoline prices and auto prices fell. The massive shift from public transport to the auto has caused severe problems of pollution, safety, equity, and congestion in Eastern German cities, partly because of the suddenness of the modal shift. Urban transport policy in Eastern Germany should adopt some of the strategies used for years in Western Germany to tame the automobile, while at the same time allowing high levels of auto ownership. Such strategies include auto-free zones, traffic calming, extensive bicycle pathways, vehicle emission standards, and parking restrictions. Finally, large investments will have to be made in Eastern Germany's dilapidated roadway and public transport infrastructure.