Mobitz type I 2nd degree atrioventricular (Wenckebach) block and cardiovascular death using 978,901 12 lead ECGs recordings

Abstract

Abstract Background Mobitz type I 2nd degree atrioventricular (AV) block (Wenckebach) is usually considered benign. Guidelines recommend permanent cardiac pacing for patients with Mobitz type II second degree AV block (Mobitz II), but for patients with Wenckebach, permanent pacing is only indicated if the AV block causes symptoms or if the conductions delay occurs below the bundle of His. However, these guidelines are based on evidence of modest quality and a consensus amongst experts (1). Purpose This study aims to investigate if Wenckebach really is benign by comparing the risk of cardiovascular death for patients with Wenckebach to patients with normal ECGs. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 978,901 ECGs obtained from general practitioners in Denmark from 01/02/2001 to 31/10/2014. Index date was the day of the ECG recording and the patients were followed until death or end of follow up at December 2019. The association between Wenckebach and cardiovascular death was analyzed using: 1) multivariate Cox models adjusted for age and comorbidities, 2) cause-specific Cox models and 3) cumulative risk and cause-specific hazard function plots, compared to matched controls. Information about comorbidities, pacemaker, indications, and death was retrieved from Danish nationwide registries. Results From the 978,901 ECG recordings, we found 262 patients with Wenckebach, 131 patients with Mobitz II, and 229,056 patients with normal ECGs. In Wenckebach, Mobitz II, and normal ECG the median age was 76, 80, and 50 years, 76%, 63%, and 41% were male, 25%, 16%, and 3% had diabetes, 35%, 30%, and 8% had hypertension, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 11.2 years, cardiovascular death occurred in a total of 11,301 patients: 77 (29%) patients with Wenckebach, 40 (31%) patients with Mobitz II, and 11,184 (5%) patients with normal ECGs. In a matched cohort 262 Wenckebach patients were matched with 520 controls with normal ECGs. In the multivariate Cox model, Wenckebach was associated with cardiovascular death (HR: 2.14 [95% CI: 1.46–3.13], P<0.001). Furthermore, in multivariate cause-specific Cox analysis with non-cardiovascular death and pacemaker as competing risk, Wenckebach was still associated with cardiovascular death (HR: 2.27 [95% CI: 1.37–3.75], P=0.001). Furthermore, the results showed that 43% of the Wenckebach patients received pacemaker with a median time to pacemaker from ECG recording being 252 days. The vast majority of the Wenckebach patients who received pacemaker had a higher degree AV block than Wenckebach as indication for the implantation. Conclusion Wenckebach on routine ECG was associated with a significant higher hazard rate of cardiovascular death compared to matched controls with normal ECGs. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The Danish Heart Association