Mobility Trends in Transport Sector Modeling

Stefan Kraus,Detlef Stolten,Thomas Grube

doi:10.3390/futuretransp2010010

Stefan Kraus, Detlef Stolten + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp2010010

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Abstract

Transport sector models help provide strategic information for the future development of the transportation sector. Such long-term scenarios are typically challenged by uncertainties. Moreover, certain trends, such as the transition to zero-emission transportation systems and modal shifts, as well as connected, shared and autonomous vehicles, are already apparent today. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of these trends on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their implementation in transport sector modeling thus far. The investigations are structured into the four main parts of transport sector greenhouse gas emission calculation: activity, modal share, energy intensity and fuel carbon intensity. Our analysis of the related effects reveals their importance to the transportation sector of the future. Current models and scenarios widely consider trends such as the modal shift and electrification. However, other trends such as the sharing economy and automated driving are not commonly regarded in the context of transport sector modeling. The coupling of the different types of models and collaboration among researchers from the different fields is recommended for filling this gap.

Highlights

Chair for Fuel Cells, RWTH Aachen University, c/o Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis (IEK-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, 52428 Jülich, Germany
Typical questions include: Which drivetrain and fuel should be used for which mode of transportation? What energy demands can be expected in the coming decades? How will the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions develop?
This paper focusses on mobility trends, including their impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their modeling in transport sector models

Summary

Introduction

Transport sector models help provide strategic information for the future development of the transportation sector. Such long-term scenarios are typically challenged by uncertainties. Certain trends, such as the transition to zero-emission transportation systems and modal shifts, as well as connected, shared and autonomous vehicles, are already apparent today. The investigations are structured into the four main parts of transport sector greenhouse gas emission calculation: activity, modal share, energy intensity and fuel carbon intensity. Current models and scenarios widely consider trends such as the modal shift and electrification Other trends such as the sharing economy and automated driving are not commonly regarded in the context of transport sector modeling. Possible research gaps are made visible, and should be closed in the future in order to improve model-based assessments in the context of current research tasks

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