Abstract
Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. We asked whether mobility restrictions were associated with changes in the occurrence of COVID-19 in 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Our data sources were the Google Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different types of mobility, and COVID-19 cases retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data. Beginning at each country’s 100th case, and incorporating a 14-day lag to account for the delay between exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (with January 3 to February 6, 2020 as baseline) and the ratio of the number of newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective ‘pool’ in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic. Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. These findings point to the importance of acting early and decisively in a pandemic.
Highlights
Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness
While reductions in interpersonal contact and increases in physical distancing are known to decrease spread of respiratory infection[9], the paucity of recent examples of large-scale restrictions on mobility when dangerous viruses were circulating widely has limited the scope for research on their impact on transmission
Two sets of publicly available data were pooled into one dataset: country-specific newly confirmed COVID-19 cases per day retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data[22], based on data collected from multiple national sources by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, and country-specific mobility change data obtained from the Google Global Mobility Data Source[23,24]
Summary
Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. Imposition of restrictions on mobility have been the cornerstone of policy responses to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic[1] These restrictions have included both incentives, encouraging working from home, facilitated by expansion of online resources that enable meetings, teaching, and shopping; and sanctions such as stay at home orders, restrictions on travel, and closure of shops, offices, and public transport[2,3,4,5]. There are some studies that do find a link between mobility restrictions and reductions in viral t ransmission[20], while a recent analysis of GDP and death rates finds that poorer pandemic control tends to be associated with greater economic loss[21]
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