Mobility in European container port rankings

Abstract

This paper investigates changes in European container port rankings, in order to determine if and how a new dynamic phase can follow a phase of maturity in a container port range. We examine mobility in ranking during 2000–2019 and shed light on the influence of neighbouring ports in a range as well as the level of maturity of each range. Findings from three different methods (Gini coefficient and the Lorenz curve; Markov chains; Spatial Markov Chains) show that, overall, there is a low probability for ports to change status and to enter into a new dynamic phase. Our results confirm that path dependence plays an important role in port systems, with very low inter-class mobility. When mobility occurs, it is mostly for small and medium ports, and this mobility is higher when ports are surrounded by large ports. These results suggest that competition with existing larger ports can be good for the port system rather than allowing traffic to concentrate in a small number of ports. Finally, mature port ranges can enter a renewed dynamic phase, as smaller ports seek either to compete for market share or alternatively seek mergers with large ports where competition possibilities are absent.