Mobility and labor market trajectories of Ukrainian migrants to Poland in the context of the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

ABSTRACT The 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted, among other things, in a dramatic increase in Ukrainian emigration to Europe, particularly to Poland. The article evaluates its consequences, by confronting trajectories of pre- and post- 2014 war male and female Ukrainian migrants to Poland. The comparisons combine mobility and migrants’ labor market paths linked to employment sectors. On data from surveys conducted in two Polish cities – Warsaw and Wrocław – in 2018-2019, we performed sequence analysis revealing seven clusters of trajectories, serving as a dependent variable in the multinomial regression analysis. We found that the war context contributed to the growth of permanency in Ukrainian migration, challenging a temporary mobility model observed in Ukraine-to-Poland migration for over two decades, which involves demographic consequences for Ukrainian society. In Poland, post-2014 war migrants are more likely than earlier cohorts to work in the new migrant niches, but contribute also to the revitalization of old ones. All of this contributes to structural changes in the Polish labor market. Importantly, we did not find evidence for a refugee penalty in economic integration, which we link to the mix of economic and humanitarian drivers of post-war Ukrainian migration to Poland.