Mobility and COVID-19 in Andorra: Country-Scale Analysis of High-Resolution Mobility Patterns and Infection Spread.

Ronan Doorley,Josep Ribo,Kent Larson,Alex Berke,Luis Alonso,Marc Pons,Ariel Noyman,Vanesa Arroyo

doi:10.1109/jbhi.2021.3121165

Ronan Doorley, Josep Ribo + Show 6 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1109/jbhi.2021.3121165

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Abstract

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as mobility restrictions, have been globally adopted as critically important strategies to curb the spread of infection. However, such interventions come with immense social and economic costs and the relative effectiveness of different mobility restrictions are not well understood. Some recent works have used telecoms data sources that cover fractions of a population to understand behavioral changes and how these changes have impacted case growth. This study analyzed uniquely comprehensive datasets in order to examine the relationship between mobility and transmission of COVID-19 in the country of Andorra. The data consisted of spatio-temporal telecoms data for all mobile subscribers in the country, serology screening results for 91% of the population, and COVID-19 case reports. A comprehensive set of mobility metrics was developed using the telecoms data to indicate entrances to the country, contact with tourists, stay-at-home rates, trip-making and levels of crowding. Mobility metrics were compared to infection rates across communities and transmission rate over time. All metrics dropped sharply at the start of the country's lockdown and gradually rose again as the restrictions were gradually lifted. Several of these metrics were highly correlated with lagged transmission rate. There was a stronger correlation for measures of indoor crowding and inter-community trip-making, and a weaker correlation for total trips (including intra-community trips) and stay-at-homes rates. These findings provide support for policies which aim to discourage gathering indoors while lifting the most restrictive mobility limitations.

Highlights

T HE rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to an unprecedented global effort to curb the disease
Even after some populations have been largely vaccinated against COVID-19, Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) may continue to be considered as important strategies to manage new variants of COVID-19 and future health crises
By comparing the number of reported cases before May 1st to the inferred number of infections, it was estimated that just 1 in BY PARISH ESTIMATED FROM THE MAY 2020 SEROLOGY TESTING PROGRAM IN ANDORRA

Summary

Introduction

T HE rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to an unprecedented global effort to curb the disease. Given the lack of effective therapeutics or widely distributed vaccines at the start of the pandemic, Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) became a primary public health strategy for achieving these goals [10], [24]. These included widespread government mandates restricting mobility and economic activity, in ways that were unimagined in months previous to 2020. Border closures and mobility restrictions are clearly effective to some degree in curbing transmission of COVID-19 [6] These measures have enormous economic, social and mental health impacts and policymakers must carefully consider the relative costs and benefits of every policy. Neither the costs nor benefits of NPIs for COVID-19 are well understood due the enormous complexity of the problem in terms of both virology and human dynamics

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