Mobile sources critical review: 1998 NARSTO assessment

Abstract

Mobile sources of air pollutants encompass a range of vehicle, engine, and fuel combinations. They emit both of the photochemical ozone precursors, hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen. The most important source of hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen are light- and heavy-duty on-road vehicles and heavy-duty off-road vehicles, utilizing spark and compression ignition engines burning gasoline and diesel respectively. Fuel consumption data provide a convenient starting point for assessing current and future emissions. Modern light-duty, gasoline vehicles when new have very low emissions. The in-use fleet, due largely to emissions from a small “high emitter” fraction, has significantly larger emissions. Hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide are higher than reported in current inventories. Other gasoline powered mobile sources (motorcycles, recreational vehicles, lawn, garden, and utility equipment, and light aircraft) have high emissions on a per quantity of fuel consumed basis, but their contribution to total emissions is small. Additional uncertainties in spatial and temporal distribution of emissions exist. Heavy-duty diesel vehicles are becoming the dominant mobile source of oxides of nitrogen. Oxides of nitrogen emissions may be greater than reported in current inventories, but the evidence for this is mixed. Oxides of nitrogen emissions on a fuel-consumed basis are much greater from diesel mobile sources than from gasoline mobile sources. This is largely the result of stringent control of gasoline vehicle emissions and a lesser (heavy-duty trucks) or no control (construction equipment, locomotives, ships) of heavy-duty mobile sources. The use of alternative fuels, natural gas, propane, alcohols, and oxygenates in motor vehicles is increasing but remains small. Vehicles utilizing these fuels can be but are not necessarily cleaner than their gasoline or diesel counterparts. Historical vehicle kilometers traveled growth rates of about 2% annually in both the United States and Canada will slow somewhat to about 1.5%. Mexican growth rates are expected to be greater. Fuel consumption growth in recent years of about 1.4% annually is projected to continue as slowing gains in fuel economy from fleet turnover are more than offset by growth and the increasing number of Sport Utility Vehicles. This growth also will erode the emissions reductions resulting from cleaner new vehicles and fuels. Uncertainties in these projections are high and affected by economic activity, demographics, and the effectiveness of emissions control programs — especially those for reducing in-use emissions.