Měnová politika - kudy dál?

Abstract

Various theoretical perspectives on the current macroeconomic development of advanced economies, indicating a slowdown in economic growth and labour productivity accompanied by very low inflation, are discussed. Mainstream opinion has been emphasizing the threat of se-cular stagnation, which would require much looser monetary policy compared to past decades. On the other hand, opinions pointing to the limits and risks of a long-term loose monetary policy are analysed. Special attention is paid to the phenomenon of deflation. Biases of measurement of basic macroeconomic indicators in the age of digitization are discussed as well. As a possible way forward in monetary policy, incorporation of labour market indicators seems to be promising. In the age of digitization, labour market statistics are more reliable than indicators of output and/or inflation. An experimental example of a modified Taylor rule for the Czech economy provides supportive arguments for using available indica tors from the labour market in the process of monetary policy decision making to a greater extent compared to current practice.