MJO Wind Energy and Prediction of El Niño

Abstract

AbstractThis study applies the energetic framework developed to quantify the interaction between the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to El Niño forecasting. The MJO wind power, measured by the covariability of MJO‐related wind stress and oceanic Kelvin wave activity, is combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, and two new indices are proposed. The MJO‐Kelvin wave‐ENSO (MaKE) index is proposed as an ENSO predictor and is shown to slightly outperform Niño 3.4 when applied to observational data sets and to greatly outperform Niño 3.4 when applied to CFSv2 reforecasts of the years 1980–2014. The MJO‐Kelvin wave Influence (MaKI) index is proposed to predict MJO influence on developing El Niño events. This index performs reasonably well when applied to observations. The forecast skill of MaKI in the CFSv2 reforecasts suggests that this model does not predict the observed MJO‐ENSO relationship as measured by this index.