Abstract
In recent years, with the development of high-speed railway in China, the railway operating mileages and passenger transport capacity have increased rapidly. Due to the high density of trains and the limited capacity of railways, it is necessary to solve market shares of different railway traffic modes in order to adjust the operation plans appropriately and run railway passenger transport products in line with passenger demand. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to calculate market shares by formulating a mixed logit model based on improved nonlinear utility functions taking different factors into consideration, such as seat grades, fares, running time, passenger income levels and so on. Firstly according to maximum likelihood estimation, the likelihood function of this mixed logit model is proposed to maximize utility of all passenger groups. After that, we propose two improved algorithms based on the simulated annealing algorithm (ISAA-CC and ISAA-SS) to estimate the unknown parameters and solve the optimal solution of this model in order to enhance the computational efficiency. Finally, a real-world instance with related data of Beijing–Tianjin corridor, is implemented to demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed approaches. In addition, by performing this numerical experiment and comparing these two improved algorithms with the traditional Newton method, the ant colony algorithm and the simulated annealing algorithm, we prove that the improved algorithms we developed are superior to others in the optimal solution.
Highlights
With the continuous improvement of railway networks, the connectivity across the regions has gradually increased, and passenger travel demand has increased with an unprecedented speed
The choosing probabilities of different passenger groups and market shares of different railway traffic modes are shown in Table 8; and correspondingly the likelihood estimated value is Probabilities of Different Passenger Groups
The method of solving market shares proposed in this paper is a common method for managing the passenger flow in order to reduce the mismatch between transportation resources allocation and passenger demand
Summary
With the continuous improvement of railway networks, the connectivity across the regions has gradually increased, and passenger travel demand has increased with an unprecedented speed. Due to the heavily congested passenger flow in peak hours in certain railway corridors, the passenger demand still cannot be satisfied even with the maximum departure frequency. To release the traffic pressure and solve the transportation problems, such as the mismatch between passenger demand and transportation resource allocation of different railway passenger service patterns, it is urgent to research the market shares of different railway traffic modes. It directly affects the determination of the recent optimal train operation plans, e.g., the train capacity, departure quantity and departure frequency, and maximizes economic profits, social benefits and passenger demand.
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