Mixed layer depth (MLD) variability in the southern Bay of Biscay. Deepening of winter MLDs concurrent with generalized upper water warming trends?

Abstract

Mixed layer depth (MLD) variability from seasonal to decadal time scales in the Bay of Biscay is studied in this work. A hydrographic time series running since 1991 in the study area, a climatology of the upper layer vertical structure based on the topology of this temperature profile time series and a one-dimensional water column model have been used for this purpose. The prevailing factors driving MLD variability have been determined with detail, and agreement with observations is achieved. Tests carried out to investigate climatological profile skill to reproduce the upper layer temporal evolution have demonstrated its ability to simulate variability at seasonal time scales and reproduce the most conspicuous events observed. This has enabled us to carry out a reconstruction of the MLD variability for the last 60 years in the study area. Favourable sequence of intense mixing events explains interannual differences and cases of extraordinary deepening of winter mixed layer. The negative phase of the Eastern Atlantic pattern seems to determine important interannual variability through intense episodes of cooling and mixing as in winter 2005 in the Bay of Biscay. Low-frequency variability is also observed. A very striking and unexpected shallower winter MLD during the 1970s and 1980s than those observed from 1995 has been found. Simulation results support this counter-intuitive outcome of shallower winter mixed layers concurrent with generalized upper water warming trends reported on several occasions for the area. The long-term trends in MLD seem related with decadal variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation, being in phase and opposition with other deepening-shallowing cycles found from subtropical-to-subpolar areas in the North Atlantic.