Mixed-Effects Modelling of the Risk Factors Associated with Multiple Pregnancies in Thoroughbred Mares.

Abstract

Simple SummaryMultiple pregnancies (MPs), or twins/triplets, are commonly diagnosed in pregnant mares. Whilst some studies have identified factors associated with an increased risk of MPs, they have only looked at each factor individually and not accounted for the effects of factors when they occur together. This study used statistical modelling to identify risk factors for MPs, looking at 27 factors as well as the contribution of the mare, stallion (both proxies for genetics), farm, and veterinarian. We found that multiple ovulations and the use of a drug that mimics prostaglandin F2α to induce oestrus, both increased the risk of a mare having an MP. Mares that had a foal that same year, had a uterine cyst, or who did not get pregnant on the first cycle they were bred on were at a decreased risk of having an MP. Factors that impact the early embryonic environment are more important influences of multiple pregnancies when compared to the genetics of the mare. The increased incidence of MP but not MOs over the previous decades may well reflect improved management of the endometrium as opposed to selection of mares with increased risk for MPs. A limitation of the study is the reliance on clinical records being completed accurately.Multiple pregnancies (MPs) are commonly diagnosed during breeding management of mares. Whilst some studies have reported on factors associated with the risk of MPs, few have utilised multivariable data analysis to control for confounding variables. A prospective cohort study of Thoroughbred broodmares was conducted with information collected on 27 factors. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for MPs. Mare, stallion, stud, and veterinarian were evaluated as random effects. The prevalence of MPs in 1754 mares and 2245 pregnancies was 16.06% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14.54, 17.58). Multiple ovulations (OR = 15.57, 95% CI = 11.88, 20.53) and treatment with cloprostenol (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.015, 1.80) were associated with increased odds of MPs following multivariable analysis. Mares that foaled at the start of the breeding season (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.47, 0.94), conceived at the second or more oestrus cycles (OR = 0.60, 95% CI= 0.43, 0.84), or identified with a uterine cyst (OR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.40, 0.97) were at reduced odds of conceiving MPs. Mare, stallion, stud, and veterinarian were not associated with MPs. These findings provide possible explanations as to why the prevalence of MPs but not MOs have increased over the last decade.