Mitigation strategies for airborne disease transmission in orchestras using computational fluid dynamics.

Hayden A Hedworth,Tony Saad,Josh Mcconnell,Mokbel Karam,James C Sutherland

doi:10.1126/sciadv.abg4511

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic forced performing arts groups to cancel shows and entire seasons due to safety concerns for the audience and performers. It is unclear to what extent aerosols generated by wind instruments contribute to exposure because their fate is dependent on the airflow onstage. We use transient, second-order accurate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate aerosol concentrations and the associated risk and assess strategies to mitigate exposure in two distinct concert venues. Mitigation strategies involved rearranging musicians and altering the airflow by changing HVAC settings, opening doors, and introducing flow-directing geometries. Our results indicate that the proposed mitigation strategies can reduce aerosol concentrations in the breathing zone by a factor of 100, corresponding to a similar decrease in the probability of infection.

Highlights

On 10 March 2020, what was supposed to be a routine choir practice for the Skagit County Choir resulted in the infection of 53 of the 61 choir members in attendance with the virus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) [1]
According to a Brookings Institute report that examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the arts in the United States, the creative industry affected the most was the fine and performing arts such as choirs, orchestras, operas, and dance companies [2]
In the United States, at the time of writing, only a handful of orchestras have returned to in-person perform ances with limited audiences and many have switched to virtual performances until at least mid-2021

Summary

Introduction

On 10 March 2020, what was supposed to be a routine choir practice for the Skagit County Choir resulted in the infection of 53 of the 61 choir members in attendance with the virus known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) [1]. Three of those infected were hospitalized, and two died [1]. In the United States, at the time of writing, only a handful of orchestras have returned to in-person perform ances with limited audiences and many have switched to virtual performances until at least mid-2021

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