Mitigation Challenges for China’s End-Use Sectors Under a Global Below Two Degree Target

Abstract

To achieve a global below 2° climate target, every country would need to promote low-carbon transitions in their energy system. The biggest developing country, China, will face a particularly severe challenge to balance the increasing energy demand and the CO2 mitigation required by a below 2° target. Based on the energy system optimization results generated by a 14-region global TIMES model, this chapter aims to analyze the key challenges for China’s end-use sectors. Under the stringent CO2 emission constraint, significant improvements in energy efficiency and changes in energy structure resulting from electrification are expected to be achieved in the building, transportation and industry sectors. The penetration of high-efficient technologies requires the implementation of sufficient incentives like targeted policies or market mechanisms. Electrification needs the availability of abundant and stable electricity supply for end-use sectors since demand will increase rapidly.