Mitigation, adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets

Abstract

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the assumptions and methods used, although some general conclusions can be drawn. Studies of economic impacts suggest that average market effects in the United States may range from +$1.3 to +7.4 billion per year by the middle of the next century. Estimates of the cost of sequestering carbon have generally increased over the last 10 years, with a current range of <1–73 million metric t per year of additional sequestration from afforestation projects costing $5–66 per metric t. Estimates of the potential for alternative methods for carbon sequestration, such as product markets and recycling, are as large as afforestation estimates, with up to 50 million metric tons per year of additional storage considered possible. Cost estimates have not been developed for these alternative methods, however.