Mitigating vulnerability of a multimodal public transit system for sustainable megacities: a real-time operational control method

Abstract

The multimodal public transit system (MPTS) has been recognized as a primary mobility support system for sustainable megacities. However, it is often vulnerable to various service disruptions, and the most severe circumstance is the interdependent cascading failures interacting among urban rail transit, bus transit, and road transit networks. The vulnerability of an MPTS against this severe failure, associated with extreme performances, limits the building of future resilient megacities. In this paper, a real-time operational control method based on the system emergency capability (SEC) is developed to block the dynamic unfolding paths of this severe failure considering network topology characteristics and dynamic evolution characteristics. This method is immediately available for real-time emergency control, while previous studies on qualitative optimization strategies cannot. Remarkably, a three-stage association design process is conducted to explore the most efficient SEC loading strategy, involved with multiple intertwined influential factors, including the target loading stations, loading time-step intervals, and loading interval length and loading strength. Finally, a case simulation is undertaken to indicate the adaptability of the proposed method. This work can provide critical insights into real-world emergency resource allocation and an underlying simulator with search direction knowledge for future intelligent algorithm-based optimal control.