Mitigating the risk of photovoltaic power generation: A complementarity model of solar irradiation in diverse regions applied to Brazil

Abstract

Several countries face the challenge of reducing the intermittency of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation due to changes in climatic conditions. Considering that Brazil has continental-scale dimensions and diversified geography, an alternative that allows smoothing the intermittency in solar PV power generation is needed. The novelty of this study lies in the proposal to allocate the production of PV solar energy between the interconnected regions of the country efficiently, forming an optimal portfolio with the highest productivity and the least intermittency. Thus, the regional allocation process for solar generation is formulated through an optimization problem with two objective functions: to increase the country's productivity and simultaneously control the variability of the supply of solar energy. This study concluded that the current planning models for the expansion in Brazil (both centralized and distributed generation) do not consider the variability of incident solar radiation in its five regions; therefore, the formation of the current regional portfolio of investments in power generation from solar PV energy is not efficient.