Mitigating the impacts of COVID-19 on domestic rice supply and food security in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Food and medication security is an unseen battle occurring during the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Sustainable rice supplies are crucial during a pandemic period, especially in Southeast Asian countries (SEA countries). This study analyzes the vulnerability level of SEA countries regarding rice supply, with alternative import strategies recommended. By employing RCA, CAaA, and XCA indexes, the comparative advantage and competitiveness of rice-exporting countries are analyzed. The study shows that Malaysia and Singapore are highly vulnerable regarding rice crisis, while Indonesia, Philippines, and Brunei are moderately vulnerable. Thailand and Vietnam supply 76.74% of SEA countries’ rice imports. SEA importers should consider alternative import strategies in order to reduce their high-risk dependency on the supply of rice from Thailand and Vietnam. XCA analysis results show that India, Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, China, and the USA are more competitive and have better comparative advantages as compared to other rice exporters with a high supply volume or lower prices. The alternative rice-exporting suppliers that could be considered by SEA countries are Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, and Argentina. Additionally, this paper introduces the XCA index and CAaA index to complement the bias of the RCA index.