Mitigating proximate impacts of tropical cyclone landfalls in the Southwest Indian Ocean

Abstract

The occurrence and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Southwest (SW) Indian Ocean were investigated over five cyclone seasons (November to April) between 2018/19 and 2022/23. Data describing cyclone characteristics, affected populations and economic losses from cyclone landfalls in Madagascar and Mozambique were extracted from the African Risk Capacity (ARC)’s Tropical Cyclone Explorer (TCE) software. Of 56 cyclones that formed in the region, 27 landfalls occurred with an average of 2.8 per season in Madagascar and 2.6 in Mozambique, mainly in January and February of each year. Most cyclone landfalls in Madagascar were categorized as moderate tropical storms (MTS, 43 %) and intense tropical cyclones (ITC, 22 %). In Mozambique, landfalls were mostly ITC (31 %) followed by MTS (23 %). Landfalls of very intense tropical cyclones (VITC) were more common in Mozambique (15 %) than Madagascar (7 %). An average of 1.8 million and 775,000 people per season were exposed to strong cyclone winds in Madagascar and Mozambique, respectively, with economic losses from cyclones per season averaging $544 million in Madagascar and $170 million in Mozambique. The African Risk Capacity (ARC), a specialized agency of the African Union, has implemented a parametric insurance solution to mitigate the proximate effects of cyclones damage on vulnerable populations. Four modules to estimate losses caused by cyclone events are described; the hazard-, vulnerability / damage-, - exposure- and insurance modules. Initial outcomes of the ARC’s parametric cyclone insurance policy in Madagascar and Mozambique are discussed. Since its launch in 2020, the ARC’s parametric cyclone insurance policy including its Replica partner allocated a total payout of $12.2 million to Madagascar following the landfalls of cyclones BATSIRAI in 2022 and FREDDY in 2023.