Abstract
While alkali-activated materials (AAMs) have been hailed as a very promising solution to mitigate colossal CO2 emissions from world portland cement production, there is lack of robust models that can demonstrate this claim. This paper pioneers a novel system dynamics model that captures the system complexity of this problem and addresses it in a holistic manner. This paper reports on this object-oriented modeling paradigm to develop a cogent prognostic model for predicting CO2 emissions from cement production. The model accounts for the type of AAM precursor and activator, the service life of concrete structures, carbonation of concrete, AAM market share, and policy implementation period. Using the new model developed in this study, strategies for reducing CO2 emissions from cement production have been identified, and future challenges facing wider AAM implementation have been outlined. The novelty of the model consists in its ability to consider the CO2 emission problem as a system of systems, treating it in a holistic manner, and allowing the user to test diverse policy scenarios, with inherent flexibility and modular architecture. The practical relevance of the model is that it facilitates the decision-making process and policy making regarding the use of AAMs to mitigate CO2 emissions from cement production at low computational cost.
Highlights
The global average of temperature has risen by about 0.85 ◦ C from the year 1880 to 2012 [1].The World Meteorological Organization [2] warns that greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at record levels and if the current trend continues, we may see temperature increases of 3–5 ◦ C by the end of the century, overshooting the targeted goal of 2 ◦ C stated in the Paris Agreement
Cases for the influence of AAB market share were tested with the policy implementation period fixed at 10 years and the same AAB mixture used for analyzing the effect of the policy implementation period
This study uses systems thinking to model the effects of using alternative binders on future CO2 emissions from portland cement production
Summary
The global average of temperature has risen by about 0.85 ◦ C from the year 1880 to 2012 [1]. The ageing, service life performance, repair and replacement of structures incorporating AAM, and sequestering of atmospheric CO2 via carbonation, are included to capture the time-dependent feedback loops embedded in the sustainability of these binders. Countries with growing economies and large populations, such as China and India, continue to lead the production of OPC with a predicted cumulative total of 9.31- and 6.95-billion-ton CO2 emissions, respectively [9] Both countries have an abundant resource of OPC due to its constant use, the AAM production of precursors, such as fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag, has proven to exceed its demand and utilization in the past ten years (Making Concrete Change, 2018). The model departs from existing approaches that do not capture the complexity and time-dependent feedback loops of this system
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