Mitigating environmental impacts of food consumption in the European Union: Is the power truly on our plates?

Abstract

In the context of the sustainable use of our planet's resources, there is a pressing need for environmentally friendly diets. Moreover, health issues linked to inadequate nutrition are rising, further emphasising the need for more balanced diets. The aim of the planetary health diet developed by the EAT-Lancet commission is to sustainably feed 10 billion people in 2050 while not exceeding planetary limits. According to these guidelines, the EU should reduce red meat intake by 80 % and multiply legume intake by 15. This significant shift from animal to plant-based proteins could modify trade partnerships and EU dependency on plant-based proteins for animal feed, currently discussed within the EU protein strategy. This study evaluates land use changes and environmental consequences of this change in dietary patterns by applying a consequential life cycle assessment approach combined with an agri-economic model, additionally assessing if this diet shift could help to achieve EU Green Deal targets. For this simulation, the partial equilibrium model CAPRI was used, which is a global agricultural market model focusing on Europe, including bilateral trade worldwide. We found that the diet shift results in gaps between domestic demand and supply which are compensated by increased imports of legumes and additional exports of red meat from the EU due to an increased demand for red meat in non-EU countries, as a consequence of decreased red meat prices. Land use changes within NUTS-2 regions indicate broad disparities depending on regional specialisation and profitability. The results from our life cycle assessment show limited benefits for most environmental impact categories within the EU given the considerable change in diets. GHG emissions from the agricultural sector would be reduced by 9 %, representing 4 % of the change needed to achieve overall EU GHG emission targets i.e., a reduction of 55 % by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Yet, the mitigation potential allocated to EU production of shifting diets could be greater if international trade were not offsetting expected local environmental benefits. Indeed, if EU red meat and animal feed production were reduced proportionally to the demand shift, domestic legume production could hypothetically be extended in the available agricultural areas coming along with improvements in all environmental impact categories. Scientific contribution and media regularly point out the significant influence of individual consumer behaviour as an impulse for change: “the power is on our plates”, while the results of our simulations show that this holds only to a limited extent. To minimise environmental pollution, strong supply-side policies are needed to complement the power on the consumers' plates.