Mitigating Electricity Consumption Challenges through Data Analysis: A case of an Asian Megalopolis

Abstract

This study demonstrates the critical role of data analysis in understanding and mitigating electricity consumption challenges in Karachi, Pakistan. By applying mathematical models and statistical methods, the effective harnessing of data has enabled the derivation of meaningful conclusions and the development of predictive models for electricity consumption patterns in the study. The study relied on extensive data from 2010 to 2020, including Electricity consumption of different sectors (E.C.), the number of consumers (NOC), population (P), humidity (H), and temperature (T) statistics as parameters. Notably, the study revealed a strong correlation between E.C. in various sectors (domestic, commercial, industrial, and agricultural,) and the above parameters. Data analysis serves as the backbone of this study, as it involves the examination and manipulation of data related to various factors influencing electricity consumption, such as the number of consumers (NOC), population (P), humidity (H), and temperature (T). To predict the parameters mentioned above, different mathematical models such as linear, Exponential, polynomial, and logarithmic models were applied to NOC, P, H, and T data. In order to get the best fitted model of goodness-of-fit tests, the Coefficient of Determination (Adj-R2) was applied and the polynomial model was found to be the most effective one for the above parameters. According to the model's projections, the expected electricity consumption for the Industrial, agricultural, domestic, and commercial sectors will be as follows.
 In 2024: Industrial - 4935.235 KWh, Agriculture - 163.6702 KWh, Domestic - 10048.48 KWh, Commercial - 2409.322 KWh.
 In 2030: Industrial - 6152.609 KWh, Agriculture - 163.581 KWh, Domestic - 14306 KWh, Commercial - 3238.007 KWh.
 In 2040: Industrial - 7072.418 KWh, Agriculture - 120.0209 KWh, Domestic - 18010.15 KWh, Commercial - 4101.986 KWh.
 This study provides valuable insights into the impact of various factors on Karachi's electricity demand. This study makes a significant contribution to energy management by providing precise predictions of electricity consumption patterns across a variety of sectors in 2024. Policymakers, urban planners, and energy managers can benefit from the findings. Using this guidance, Karachi can make well-informed decisions regarding electricity crises and sustainable energy practices.