Missile defence plans raise conflict risk in East Asia

Abstract

Subject Possible deployment of the US THAAD missile defence system in South Korea. Significance China has threatened South Korea with a serious breach in relations if it agrees to US deployment on its territory of a new theatre missile defence system, called THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense). The threat represents a change in China's posture toward South Korea that may be explained more by Beijing's stiffening opposition to the US rebalancing (the 'pivot to Asia') than by the purely operational capabilities and characteristics of THAAD. Impacts Deployment of THAAD is not yet a sure thing. Seoul will invest heavily in its own missile defence capabilities independent of THAAD. The prospect of any kind of diplomatic breakthrough between Beijing and Washington will have to await the next US administration. Japan's turn towards more active defence policy makes China feel threatened, but Beijing can do little to mitigate it.