Misperceptions of COVID-19 illness risk and preferences for business and school closures in the United States

Abstract

Misperceptions about COVID-19 health risks may be associated with preferences for school and business closures and fear of becoming seriously ill. We analyzed data from the Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economic of Recovery Study (July-December 2020, N = 35,068). Primary outcomes were whether a respondent favored closure of businesses or in-person schooling for elementary/secondary students. We also assessed respondents’ fear of COVID-19 illness. We assessed risk misperceptions using respondents’ estimates of the proportion of deaths from COVID-19 that occurred in persons under 55 years-old, the proportion of hospitalizations for COVID-19 that occurred in persons under 55 years-old, the mortality rate among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and the rate of hospitalization for patients infected with COVID-19. The proportion of respondents who favored business closures ranged from 37% to 53%, and the proportion of respondents who favored school closures ranged from 38% to 44%. Most participants reported beliefs about COVID-19 health risks that were inaccurate, and overestimation of health risk was most common. For example, while deaths in persons younger than 55 years-old accounted for 7% of total U.S. deaths, respondents estimated that this population represented 43% of deaths. Overestimating COVID-19 health harms was associated with increased likelihood of fear of serious illness if infected, preferences for business closures, and preferences for school closures. U.S. survey respondents overestimated several COVID-19 risks, and overestimation was associated with increased fear of serious illness and stronger preferences for business/school lockdowns.