Mismatched Reality: Russian Decision-making on the War in Ukraine

Abstract

This article examines why and how Putin’s decision could have been made to go to war with Ukraine in February 2022. It starts with an analysis of whether the decision to invade Ukraine can be seen as rational, and then examines other sociological constructs for explaining the decision. These sociological constructs are based in Max Weber’s concepts of bureaucracy, Bourdieu’s Theory of Practice and Sociological Neo-Institutionalism’s theorising on the externally influenced nature of contemporary bureaucracy. Drawing on these constructs, the article argues that a better lens to understand Putin’s decision is through models that explain the effect of the Kremlin’s bureaucracy on the formation of strategic logic. These arguments and conclusions are consistent with the concerns of New Area Studies scholarship in trying to understand why a particular narrative might form and determine national security decision-making.