Abstract
The Namie (Japan) 2016.11.21 Mw 6.9 earthquake (d=9.0km) initiated a tsunami which, contrary to forecasts of up to 3m based on preliminary earthquake magnitude, nowhere exceeded 1.4m. The hypocentre of the main shock was bordered in the succeeding 24h by a tight cluster of 24M ≤4.5 shallow (d≤20km) earthquakes. Two of them nucleated close to a M4.6 tremor that had preceded the main earthquake by 2.34h, raising the possibility that a single structure hosted all three. Granted the ultimate cause was subduction at the Japan Trench, these events reaffirm the need for focused seafloor monitoring and fault history to supplement teleseismic data for realistic tsunami forecasting. Earthquake clustering in the 24h after the main earthquake may also reflect a mode of megathrust segmentation which discourages the generation of great (Mw∼9) earthquakes.
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