Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness

Abstract

The central theme of this paper is that sustained rapid growth cannot be achieved without rapid growth in trade. A review of the experience during the past four decades offers virtually no examples of countries achieving sustained rapid growth – called miracles in this paper – without simultaneously experiencing sustained rapid growth in trade in the presence of low or high but declining barriers to trade. Simultaneously, the claim that opening to trade leads to sustained income losses is unfounded. A review of the experience of the countries that have faced stagnation or declining per‐capita incomes on a long‐term basis – called debacles in this paper – reveals no connection to a sustained surge in imports.