Mining the drivers of forest cover change in the upper Indus Valley, high Asia region from 1990 to 2020

Abstract

The high Asia region is the water tower for many river valleys in East and South Asia, which has vital significance for regional environmental conservation and ecological security. In the upper Indus Valley, the role of forests is often overlooked, and their loss will lead to a reduction in ecological services, such as water conservation and disaster prevention, and will indirectly affect the water and food security of 230 million people in South Asia. Quantifying the drivers of forest cover change is a prerequisite for ensuring sustainable development in the upper Indus Valley. This study used forest disturbance and recovery data, history fire data, topographic data, and land use data to construct a decision tree model for mining the of drivers of forest cover change. Classification of the drivers of forest disturbance and recovery was achieved in the upper Indus Valley. The results showed that (1) disturbance mainly occurred in the central region of the upper Indus Valley, where forest degradation was the main driver accounting for 69.0%, and agricultural transfer was the secondary driver accounting for 21.6%; commercial cultivation and deforestation drivers both disturbed about 4% of the area, and fire, human activities, and natural hazards disturbed only a small area of forest accounting for less than 1%; (2) the spatial distribution of recovery was basically consistent with the disturbance, with natural recovery being the main driver of forest recovery, accounting for 60.1%, and artificial recovery being the secondary driver, accounting for 39.9%; (3) relevant governance measures or forest conversation policies in the Indus Valley were recommended, such as increasing the supply of non-biomass energy, controlling the scale of livestock, and establishing friendly land use policies, to maintain the growth and balance of forest area and quality.