Mining-energy public policy of lithium in Mexico: Tension between nationalism and globalism

Abstract

This article addresses Mexico’s present situation in the lithium industry and its near future, ceteris paribus. Mexico’s short- and long-term lithium supply will not improve by the exploration and exploitation planned by the nationalistic objectives of the current government. This analysis demonstrates that significant changes must be made to Mexico’s energy policy to promote the development of lithium due to five risks: manufacturing capacity, misaligned incentives, industrial policies, geographic concentration, and limited international coordination. Therefore, although the world’s largest lithium mine was found in Sonora in 2019, Mexico’s policy approaches to nationalize lithium exploration and exploitation will not allow the country to capitalize on the boom of this industry, as happened in Bolivia. In the short term, Mexico’s policies will create an exploration deficit due to the country’s lack of know-how and investment. Thus, Mexico will not extract lithium in the long term nor benefit from the demand increase and development of a value chain, especially in North America. Given these risks, this article postulates that Mexico’s lithium policy should be revised to open its market to foreign investment and use this nascent market to a good advantage.