Mining economist opinions on using multi-agent methodology to simulate metal markets

Abstract

In coming years, distortions on metal markets are likely to appear. Indeed, some countries control most of the production of certain categories of metals and could implement exportation quotas. Consequently, consuming countries like France face increasing risks of shortages of some metals. In response, the French government suggests that a set of prospective tools be implemented, including a prospective simulation tool based on a multi-agent system (MAS) approach. The goal of this paper is to report and discuss critiques by mining economists on the value and abilities of MAS to simulate critical metal markets whenever the approach is appropriate. The motivation is: (a) to define the gaps currently existing between MAS and mining; (b) to provide indicators on how MAS approach should be enhanced to reduce these gaps; and (c) to produce an improved initial metal classification that is suitable for such a modelling exercise.