Abstract
A lottery offers rare opportunities for a favorable wager with a positive expected ticket value. We test various data mining methods for predicting when such opportunities may arise under suitable jackpot conditions. Two models – a linear and logistic regression – are shown to make excellent predictions for favorability of a wager on the next lottery drawing. A simpler classification decision tree provides good predictions as well. These models are practical for a bettor in that they utilize easily estimated ticket sales for the previous rolled-over jackpot and the size of that cash jackpot prize.
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