Abstract
Abstract The Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) tops many lists of species of conservation concern because of severe population declines and habitat loss. Here we present the first robust estimates of annual survival and population growth rates for this species. We used capture—mark—recapture models to estimate survival of adult male Cerulean Warblers in an eastern Ontario population that has been studied since 1994. Adult male survival probability (ϕ) was constant over time in our best-supported model. Our second-best-supported model indicated a negative effect of a 1998 ice storm on survival. The third-best-supported model indicated a significant year effect on survival. On the basis of those results and previously published estimates of annual fecundity, we calculated a population growth rate using a two-stage Leslie matrix. Population growth rate (λ) was 0.73, using the estimate for constant survival. Model elasticities imply that adult mortality had a stronger effect on λ than did seasonal fecundit...
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