Minimum Attractive Rates of Return Associated to Different Risk Levels: A Methodology Applied to Production Projects of The Brazilian Petroleum Industry

Abstract

Abstract The use of the maximization of net present value (NPV) associated to a single discount rate as a criterion of evaluation and selection of resources allocation projects tends to direct the investments portfolio up to a situation of high risk, and possible endangering economic position. This inappropriate situation may, however, be manageable through the use of the risk-return rule as assumed criterion. First of all, a compound factor which associates risk due to the market environment, obtained by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), to risk related to the project liquidity, identified by the concept of securities duration is introduced. Finally, a factor, pointed out by the Prospect Theory, which carachterizes the losses aversion is incorporated. When the available information is difuse, the risk related to the cash flows estimation is added. Thus, one adjusts the minimum attractive rate of return of a project to its global risk, whose NPV adjusted to the global risk calculation allows a comparison among projects of different risk levels, through a single objective criterion, which incorporates the three risk factors judged significant. Finally, the methodology will be applied to production projects of the Brazilian petroleum industry.