Minimizing Risks Due to the Filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Egypt's Nile Flows

Abstract

In 2011, the Ethiopian government started the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. GERD is the biggest dam in Africa and the seventh largest in the world producing 5,150 Megawatts of electricity, with a reservoir capacity of 74 Billion cubic meters (BCM). Originating from Ethiopia, the Blue Nile River contributes most of the river Nile's water; making it the indispensable resource for water, energy, and food security to Egypt. Great concerns were raised due to the anticipated profound consequences of this hydropower megaproject on Egypt. In particular, the expected changes in water quantities and flow patterns during the filling period of GERD. Various studies have been published on the possible impacts of GERD on Egypt. However, these studies have typically focused on one aspect of the impact, e.g. hydropower, agricultural projects, and water use despite the obvious linkage that exists among these sectors. This paper aims to analyze the risks associated with the filling of GERD on Egypt, by developing an integrated risk response model(s) to mitigate the underlying risks. The paper concludes that the high ranked risks escalated from the filling of GERD on Egypt could be avoided by preserving the water level in High Aswan Dam (HAD) reservoir throughout duration of the filling of GERD. Furthermore, the paper develops an integrated initiative, that hinges on electrical energy provision, to avoid the risks of the filling of GERD on Egypt.