Minimization of Economic Losses in Photovoltaic System Cleaning Schedules Based on a Novel Methodological Framework for Performance Ratio Forecast and Cost Analysis

Abstract

The growing interest in deploying photovoltaic systems and achieving their benefits as sustainable energy supplier raises the need to seek reliable medium-term and long-term operations with optimal performance and efficient use of economic resources. Cleaning scheduling is one of the activities that can positively impact performance. This work proposes a methodological framework to define the optimal scheduling of the cleaning activities of photovoltaic systems. The framework integrates a forecast model of the performance ratio, including the environmental variables’ effect. In addition, an economic analysis involving the economic losses and maintenance costs of cleaning is used. This framework is applied to a case study of a photovoltaic system located in Yumbo, Colombia. Based on the historical data on irradiance, active energy, temperature, rainfall, and wind speed, the obtained forecast model of the photovoltaic system’s performance ratio in a 60-day horizon has a mean absolute percentage error lesser of than 11%. The next cleaning date is forecasted to be beyond the horizon in a 19-day range, which will decrease as time goes by. This framework was applied to historical data and compared to actual cleaning dates performed by the utility company. The results show a loss of USD 33.616 due to unnecessary, early, or late cleaning activities.