Minimising carbon emissions and energy expended for electricity generation in New Zealand through to 2050

Abstract

Carbon Emissions Pinch Analysis (CEPA) and Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) analysis are combined to investigate the feasibility of New Zealand reaching and maintaining a renewables electricity target above 90% through to 2050, while also increasing electricity generation at an annual rate of 1.5% while allowing for a 50% switch to plug in electric vehicle transportation for personal use vehicles. Under this scenario NZ’s electricity demand is anticipated to reach a maximum of between 70 and 75TWh by 2050. If NZ is carbon emissions constrained to 1990 levels, to minimise energy expended, electricity growth will predominantly come from wind (18TWh) and geothermal (13TWh), and hydro (5.6TWh) to a lesser extent. Renewables resources will produce nearly 95% of electricity generation. The analysis demonstrates that NZ is in a very good position to sustainably meet their future electricity needs while maintaining very low carbon emissions levels and economically desirable EROI levels.