Mine safety assessment based on basic event importance: grey relational analysis and bow tie model.

Qingwei Xu,Kaili Xu,Xiwen Yao,Li Li

doi:10.1098/rsos.180397

Abstract

Safety assessments are a crucial first step in preventing coal and gas outburst accidents. The main purpose of this study was to create a new accident prevention technique using a novel safety assessment method based on fault tree basic event importance, grey relational analysis and the bow tie model. The innovation of the proposed method lies in generating the composite importance of a basic event from the fundamental importance via grey relational analysis; bow tie analysis serves to reveal the most critical basic event. First, the minimal cut sets and minimal path sets of a coal and gas outburst accident are determined by fault tree analysis. The role of minimal cut and path sets is determined and the coal and gas outburst occurrence frequency is calculated accordingly. Second, the structure, probability, critical and Fussell–Vesely importance ranked basic events differently due to different aspects of the basic events as investigated. We establish a composite importance to represent single basic events and achieved new ranking results by grey relational analysis. Third, the critical basic event low permeability coefficient is analysed via bow tie model and safety measures are defined which prevent the dangerous consequences of a low permeability coefficient. An actual coal and gas outburst accident is used as a case study to test the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Highlights

Coal mining has been largely responsible for the dramatic uptick in economic and social development in China [1,2,3]
We successfully determined the composite importance of a single basic event as calculated by grey relational analysis, analysed the critical event via bow tie model using the proposed method
The composite importance of various aspects of a single basic event, which is defined based on grey relational analysis, effectively gives priority to the factors most likely to cause an outburst accident

Summary

Introduction

Coal mining has been largely responsible for the dramatic uptick in economic and social development in China [1,2,3]. Coal has accounted for about 60% of the country’s total primary energy consumption in recent years [4,5]. Mining is dangerous and accidents are not altogether uncommon; coal and gas outbursts pose the most serious threat to the safety of. The mine and miners [6,7,8]. Accurate safety assessments are a crucial first step in preventing coal and gas 2 mine outburst accidents

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion