Minding the gap and the value of metrics: Count of working pharmacists in the United States

Abstract

BackgroundThe Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses a single Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code (29-1051) that reflects a traditional definition of pharmacist job functions. Pharmacists working in nontraditional roles would be categorized under other SOC codes and not included in the BLS pharmacist count. Knowing the magnitude of how many working pharmacists may not be included in the BLS pharmacist count would help determine whether the gap is a minor margin of error or a significant problem affecting pharmacist workforce projections. ObjectivesThe primary objective of this paper was to estimate the gap between the number of possibly working pharmacists and the BLS pharmacist count in 2019. A secondary objective was to examine BLS pharmacist counts in nontraditional roles and compare with published industry data. MethodsThe annual number of individuals receiving their first professional pharmacy degree from 1965 to 2019 (55 graduation cohorts) was adjusted using the expected survival rate to 2019 by age and gender and workforce participation rate in 2019 for pharmacists for each cohort and then summed across cohorts. Data sources included Accreditation Council for Pharmacy Education, U.S. Vital Statistics reports, and American Consumer Survey. One-way and scenario-based sensitivity analyses were conducted to vary professional occupation mortality advantage and pharmacist workforce participation rate assumptions. ResultsBased on the number of individuals receiving their first professional pharmacy degree between 1965 and 2019 (442,409), there were 356,998 possibly working pharmacists in 2019. This value indicates 45,798 more pharmacists (15%) may have been working in 2019 than the 311,200 employee pharmacists reported by BLS for 2019. A gap of 8000 to 46,000 more working pharmacists (3%-15%) versus BLS persisted after sensitivity analyses. ConclusionThe magnitude of possibly working pharmacists not included in BLS counts warrants further consideration of current pharmacist job projections, methods, and metrics to improve future projections and monitoring of the pharmacist labor force.