Milk yield prediction between Bunaji Holstein Friesian cross bred and Holstein Frisian cows using linear, cubic and quadratic models

Mohammed Liman,Gwaza Sylvester,Bala Dogara

doi:10.2298/bah1801119l

Abstract

The aim of this study was to compare three different models (Linear, cubic and quadratic) to find best model for predicting milk yield. Data originated from the monthly milk yields records of 251 Bunaji Holstein Friesian crossed and Holstein Friesian cows from 2010 to 2015. The daily milk yield data were regressed against time (day of lactation) for individual cow, using the procedure of SAS, (2002). The resulting polynomial regression coefficients (linear, quadratic and cubic) were then subjected to variance of analysis. All models provided an acceptable level of accuracy in predicting milk yield for Bunaji Holstein Friesian crossed and Holstein Friesian cows, but cubic model is observed to be the most suitable with (R2) values of (0.659, 0.582, 0.810 and 0.621) followed by quadratic model (0.447, 0.516, 0.614 and 0.605) while linear model has the least R2 values (0.02, 0.496, 0.548 and 0.309) in all the study farms.

Highlights

In Nigeria, cattle provides more than 90% of the total annual domestic milk output (Walshe et al, 1991) with the White Fulani or ‘Bunaji’ breed recognized as the principal producer (Adeneye, 1989)
No comprehensive study has been carried out concerning milk yield prediction in Bunaji Holstein Friesian and Nigerian Holstein-Friesian dairy cows
The data used for this study originated from the monthly milk yields records of 251 cows of Bunaji (White Fulani) crossed with Holstein Friesian cow and exotic Holstein Friesian cow from 4 dairy farms

Summary

Introduction

In Nigeria, cattle provides more than 90% of the total annual domestic milk output (Walshe et al, , 1991) with the White Fulani or ‘Bunaji’ breed recognized as the principal producer (Adeneye, 1989). Most of mathematical functions proposed to fit lactation patterns in dairy cattle are mainly aimed at describing the phenomenon. Their basic assumption is that lactation is characterized by a continuous and deterministic component with an increasing phase till a maximum followed by a decreasing slope (Macciotta et al, 2011). No comprehensive study has been carried out concerning milk yield prediction in Bunaji Holstein Friesian and Nigerian Holstein-Friesian dairy cows. This study was aimed at comparing the goodness of fit of three models (linear, cubic and quadratic) to predict milk yield of Bunaji Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian cows in North Central Nigeria using field data from dairy farms

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Results

Conclusion