Military risk assessment in counter insurgency operations: case study in the retrieval of a UAV, Nr Sangin, Afghanistan, 11 June 2006

Abstract

Risk assessment has been advocated as a principle means of improving military safety. For instance, the US Army's Composite Risk Management urges personnel to assess the likelihood and consequences of potential hazards before making strategic, tactical and operational decisions. The British army advocates risk assessment to guide both tactical planning and force protection. However, it can be difficult to apply civilian risk assessment techniques to counter insurgency operations. It is extremely hard to apply concepts such as 'risk exposure' to the uncertain and dynamic threats that face individual units in operational environments. The following pages use a case study to illustrate the practical and theoretical barriers to military risk assessment. In particular, a number of problems are identified in assessing the threats that arose during the retrieval of a UAV near Sangin in Helmand Province, Afghanistan. (6 pages)