Military Operations Abroad in the Long Run: An Economic Approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT In recent decades, many western countries engaged in Military Operations Abroad (MOA), sometimes with over-stretching military engagements such as antiterrorism, peacekeeping, or humanitarian interventions. These aggressive postures pose a heightened risk to future deployment capacities and the ability to ensure a deterrence strategy in the long run. This study investigates a theoretical model to analyze the sustainability of military operations over time. In our setup, we define military capacity as a stock variable that can regenerate itself and deplete when a country engages in MOA. We present a sustainability theorem with the identification of tipping points in the conduct of MOA. Especially, engaging in excessive military operations leads to a relative ‘demilitarization syndrome.’ This underlines a fundamental trade-off between economic conditions and strategic ambitions. The model sheds some light on the dynamics of the military capabilities of a group of major western military powers.